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abarrelfull wrote on 21 Dec 2009 06:50
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Forecasts for 2010

created: 31 Dec 2009 09:41
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2009 was a year of extremes, following a truly black swan of a year in 2008. So what of the coming twelve months. For what its worth, here are a few forecasts.

Crude oil prices will not rise above $100 per barrel, unless there is a war involving Iran. There is too much spare capacity to be used should prices rise.
Refining margins will remain weak, with a small improvement in diesel cracks and a weakening of fuel oil.
At least 1 million bpd of refinery capacity will be closed.
Heavy crude differentials will be a little better.
A least one significant independent refining company will go belly up.
The total value of mergers and acquistions in the sector will be well above 2009, with at least on mega deal involving an IOC.
Despite weak natural gas prices, nearly all the major investment announcements will be gas related.
Gas prices will remain weak.
Someone will make a significant breakthrough in next generation biofuels. The impact will not be felt for a few years however.

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created: 30 Dec 2009 07:36
tags: cnpc gas petrofac turkmenistan
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Druzhba Problems

created: 29 Dec 2009 07:51
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The perhaps not aptly named Friendship pipeline has been in the news for all the wrong reasons.

The pipeline is one of the world's biggest and is very significant for the EU's eastern and central members.

It has a capacity of over 2 million barrels per day (bpd), of which some 1.2 million bpd went directly to consumers in the European Union in 2008.

It passes through Ukraine, and after Ukraine demanded a higher transit fee, the Russians had threatened to stop the flow. However it seems that the crisis is over before it began.

Ukraine and Russia resolved a dispute over oil shipment tariffs Monday, ensuring there would be no disruption in supplies to Eastern Europe over the New Year holiday, the Russian Energy Ministry said, according to a news agency. The preliminary agreement over transit prices will be finalized and signed "within days," ministry spokeswoman Irina Esipova told the ITAR Tass news agency, without giving details of the new deal.

The problem with pipelines is that they are so inflexible, and subject to the whims of more than one government. Given Russia's bullying of Ukraine, one can understand their wish to extract maximum advantage from their transit status. However, given Ukraine's lack of reliability, one can understand Russia's wish to send more of this oil through alternative routes.

The wiki page: Druzhba Pipeline

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