abarrelfull wrote on 21 Dec 2009 06:50
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Margins are Sky High, but Restructuring Carries On
created: 21 Apr 2015 08:10
tags: europe refinery total
Refiners, especially in Europe, are enjoying margins that haven't been seen since Lehman Brothers was last in business. Nobody is sure how long they can last, but everyone is enjoying them whilst they last.
The long levity of these market conditions are of particular interest to those who need to make tough decisions over their assets. Do they keep refineries running, or do they continue with plans to reduce capacity? If you believe that the margins will last for a while, then postponing refinery closures would make sense.
Total is obviously a company that is not overly optimistic about the sustainability of the current benign environment:
Three of Total’s five refineries in France — Gonfreville in Normandy, Grandpuits in the Paris region and Feyzin near Lyon — demonstrated their ability to withstand the deteriorating economic environment in 2013 and 2014 and generate ongoing income streams. The other two, Donges and La Mède, are struggling and are structurally loss-making.
Le Mede Refinery, is therefore going to be closed, whilst Donges Refinery will be upgraded.
It seems that Total has a similar view to Wood Mackenzie, who as reported by Bloomberg are expecting a sharp correction by summer.
U.S. plants, ending seasonal maintenance, will push down European prices with rising exports, particularly of diesel and jet fuel, as they eat into a domestic stockpile of almost half a billion barrels of crude. The shipments will help reduce the continent’s third-quarter processing margins by about 42 percent
In the long term, the continued closures are good news for those who remain in business. However, the short term pessimism is based on a belief that the glut of US crude will continue. For this excess to remain, we need two things to be true:
- US oil producers must be able to make money at the current price
- There will be no developments that ease the export of crude oil
I am personally not sure that we can rely on these two factors. Distortions in the market are keeping production levels in the USA up, but gravity has to kick in at some point. Meanwhile flexibility in crude exports solves a huge number of problems and logic has to push this one to a head.
In the meantime, European refiners will count their money whilst watching rig counts obsessively.
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Recent Blogs
Will Low Oil Prices Kill the LNG Party?
created: 17 Dec 2014 09:37
tags: apache australia canada lng
One of the biggest pieces of news in the last few days is the sale by Apache of stakes in Kitimat LNG Terminal and Wheatstone LNG Terminal to Woodside.
Apache's net proceeds upon closing are expected to be approximately $3.7 billion for the transaction, a major cash infusion. Its a big turn around in strategy though, as these are important projects, at very different stages of development.
For Woodside, it represents a big punt on the LNG sector at a time when they have had to postpone their Browse LNG Terminal Project over cost concerns.
My question is does this herald the start of a trend? With low oil prices, LNG projects begin to look less attractive, especially those with a high investment cost.
Back in 2009, trains 6 & 7 of the Rasgas LNG Terminals, Yemen LNG Terminal & Tangguh LNG Terminal came on stream, followed in 2010 by Qatargas 3 Ras Laffan LNG Terminal, at a time when demand had slumped due to macroeconomic problems and growing US gas supplies. Prices slumped.
The low prices of that period generated renewed interest in LNG usage, and led to a number of import project announcements. This is especially true of China, whose state owned companies have invested heavily in supply projects as well as import terminals. (for more details see LNG Terminals And Trade In China )
Now some of this activity seems a little bubble like.
So what happens next?
I think we will see a number of more projects postponed, or even abandoned. However, for those who go ahead, the costs are going to be lower. Engineering, construction and equipment companies are not going to have the full order books of recent times, and will have to be more competitive. Their costs will also be lower.
So in a few years time, when another bull market is upon us, those companies whose project economics were good enough to go ahead, will gain twice, once from higher prices and secondly from less competition.
How America can Turn Low Oil Prices to Long Term Advantage
created: 10 Dec 2014 10:07
tags: price usa
A low oil price is a wonderful opportunity in the short term, as it releases money to be spent on other things and improves the current accounts of importing countries. In my opinion, it can also be turned into a long term opportunity.
Firstly the lack of production growth in the short term is actually a blessing. Infrastructure that was not sufficient can be developed. Quality of life issues that impact production regions, such as housing and public services, can be dealt with. Issues over the environment and regulation can also be straightened out. Oil companies will focus on improving cost efficiency and will no doubt develop better technologies, when under cost pressure. When production growth resumes again, it will be much more sustainable.
Only the oil companies are losers from the current situation, not society as a whole. This is why this idea stinks. Throwing free trade out the window, to help a small number of companies is a really bad idea
If the USA wants to wean itself off imported oil, it need to increase production AND reduce consumption. The best way to reduce consumption is to tax fuel at the pump. Given that pump prices have fallen so much, this is a very opportune time to make such a move. As it will reduce consumption in the medium term, and because the USA is the world's largest consumer, oil prices will be marginally lower in the long term, meaning that some of the tax will be paid for by oil producers.
Meanwhile, giving permission to Keystone XL, would improve the supply situation in the medium term, and a government that increases taxes on fuel, can tell the environmentalist to butt out on Keystone, which is in America's interests.
So you reduce CO2 emissions and increase energy security at the same time. A perfect win. It will not happen of course, but that doesn't mean that it shouldn't.
