New Refining Projects in China

abarrelfullabarrelfull wrote on 14 Dec 2010 09:05
Tags: china projects refinery

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Much is said about the impact of Chinese Refinery investments on the sector, so I thought I would analyse the situation and share my findings.

After a bumper year in 2009, the capacity additions in China's refining sector were significantly down in 2010.

In 2009, Dushanzi, Fujian, Huizhou, Liaoning and Tianjin] projects were completed. This added 810,000 barrels per day of capacity.

In 2010, only two new projects were completed, Dongying and Guangxi / Qinzhou and two expansions Wuhan and Qilu were finished. This led to only 330,000 barrels per day of capacity additions.

In 2011 and 2012, additions will again be marginal. It is not until 2013 that we expect to see a big increase in refining capacities in the world's fastest growing market.

In 2011 the Ningxia Expansion, Quanzhou and the Changling will add about 260,000 330,000 barrels per day of capacity. In 2012, there are currently no projects expected to be completed.

2013 is a different matter all together. A total of 7 projects will add 1.3 million barrels per day of capacity. This is about the total increase in global consumption for a typical year.

Cangzhou, Caofeidian, Chongqing, Dalian, Guangdong/Nansha, Shijiazhuang and Sichuan projects are all expected to be completed.

If I am correct, we have nothing to fear from increased capacity in China until 2013

There are other projects which will come on stream later, but their completition dates are more difficult to estimate.

Note: These are all my estimates, and there may well be errors. I appreciate being corrected, and any information on any of these projects would be welcome.

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