If one were to put too much importance into the reports of refinery capacity additions, it would be very easy to get depressed. As with previous years, most of what I read seems to be exaggerated. So as before I thought I would share my calculations of how much extra capacity is coming on stream. Feel free to disagree with me.
In China, we have four refinery projects coming to completion. The largets is Sinochem's Quanzhou Refinery Project which is to be 240,000 barrels per day. Unfortunately getting reliable data on this one is difficult. Second largest is the Petrochina Sichuan Refinery Project at 200,000 bpd. Then thare are two smallish expansions, Wuhan Refinery Project and Shijiazhuang Refinery Project. In total, china will add 520,000 barrels per day
Elsewhere, the first of Saudi Arabia's new plants will be the biggest new addition, the Jubail Refinery Project is a super heavyweight and will weigh in at 400,000 bpd. Although its not completely clear, the first phase of the Persian Gulf Star Bandar Abbas Refinery Project looks like it might be completed, adding 120,000 bpd of condensate processing capacity. In North Africa the Skikda Refinery Project will add another 100,000 bpd. Finally we expect the Komsomolsk Refinery Project to finish.
The total capacity addition is 1.56 million barrels per day.
We already know that 3 refineries will close in 2013. ENI's Porto Marghera Venice Refinery is to be converted into a biofuels facility with a fraction of the capacity. Cosmo Oil's Sakaide Refinery will close in Japan and the Tesoro Ewa Beach Hawaii Refinery is also to go. These add up to more than 300,000 bpd.
Net closures, we have about 1.2 million bpd of new capacity this year. Not brilliant, but not worth fretting about.
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